The ELO model gives Charleroi fair odds of 1.63 against a much weaker OHL side (ELO 1595 vs 1366), and the medium-term form model suggests 2.24 with the goal difference models also pointing home at 1.70-1.79. The market at 1.86 sits above all model fair values, offering a consistent edge across ELO and medium-term signals.

odds available at 09:45

A substantial ELO rating advantage for Charleroi suggests they are a stronger team than the market price reflects. This is reinforced by the goal-difference models, both of which calculate fair odds significantly lower than the available 1.86, creating a clear value signal.

odds available at 09:45

Charleroi hold a 229-point ELO edge and the ELO model prices them at 1.63; short-term goal difference (+6 vs -2) also favours the hosts strongly. Market 1.86 provides a reasonable edge.

odds available at 09:45

ELO ratings and the goal-difference model both assign Charleroi a substantially higher win probability than the market, reflecting a large strength gap over Leuven. Medium-term Poisson trends support the same direction despite softer short-term attacking numbers.

odds available at 09:45