Chelsea's Poisson xG sits at nearly 2.0 goals per game recently, and the short-term fair odds for over 3.5 goals are modelled at 2.91 while the medium-term model puts it at 2.61. The market offers 2.24, which is below both fair-value estimates — suggesting the market is undervaluing the chance of a high-scoring game given Chelsea's strong home attacking output against a struggling Burnley side.