Both windows price over 2.5 at 2.31–2.43, putting the under around 57–59%. Poisson projections are modest (≈2.3–2.4 total xG), so 2.18 for the under is generous.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba's short-term home form is solid (1.83 avg points per game) while Girona's away form is very poor (0.5 over 6 matches). The short-term form model places fair home odds at 1.89 and the ELO model at 2.44, both well below the market's 2.90. Minimum stake given the magnitude of the discrepancy warrants caution, but the alignment across multiple models and Girona's clearly poor recent away record supports a thin value case.

odds available at 09:45

A significant value opportunity exists based on the performance models, which estimate fair odds for a Cordoba win to be between 1.89 and 2.15. This is driven by Cordoba's strong recent home form compared to Girona's very poor away form, a factor the market appears to have misjudged.

odds available at 09:45

All analysis models favour Cordoba at home (predicted fair odds 1.89-2.44 vs market 2.90). Recent form strongly favours Cordoba (1.83 vs 0.5 short-term). Girona are in significant internal turmoil — Tsygankov is refusing to play in Segunda, with Van de Beek, Vanat, and Ounahi also wanting out. Cordoba have never lost at home to Girona in 12 visits. The market is overrating Girona's inherited quality from La Liga.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba's dominant recent form (1.83 points per game) and higher expected goals are uniformly reflected across short-term, medium-term, and ELO models, collectively estimating a 47% win probability against the market's implied 34%.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba come in with much stronger recent form than Girona and hold the clearer expected-goals edge. Every match-price view has the home side shorter than the market, so the home win offers solid value.

odds available at 09:45

The home side demonstrates superior recent expected goals and form compared to the visitors. Both the short-term goal difference models and ELO ratings favor a home victory, making the underdog market price for the home win a solid value opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

The short-term match odds model prices Cordoba near 1.89 with strong recent home form (1.83 vs 0.50 away). ELO also slightly favours the home side. Market at 2.90 offers meaningful value against the short-form signal.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba rate better on recent form and expected goals, while most of the statistical win models make them shorter than the market. The 2.90 price implies only 34.5%, which looks too low for a home side with several aligned analysis signals.

odds available at 09:45

Girona is heavily overrated by the market despite their poor form, having secured only one victory in their last ten matches and struggling on the road. Backed by superior ELO strength and solid home form, Córdoba is highly likely to prevent an away win, making a lay bet on the visitors highly valuable.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba have markedly stronger short and medium-term form than a poor Girona side, and the short-term and ELO models both price the home win well below the market's 2.90. The expected-goals edge favours the hosts, suggesting the market is underrating them.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short and medium term statistical models price over 2.5 goals at 2.31 or higher, far above the market's 1.82, and the combined expected goals are low. This points to under 2.5 goals being clearly undervalued at 2.18.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba have substantially stronger short- and medium-term form. The match-result, goal-difference and ELO estimates all put Girona's win probability below the market-implied 38.2%.

odds available at 09:45

All four models rate the home win between 1.89 and 2.44 fair odds versus 2.90 in the market, with Cordoba in much stronger recent form (1.83 vs 0.5 points per game) and a home ELO advantage. Stake is kept modest because the market may be pricing in Girona's superior squad quality that form models miss.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba's strong home form contrasts sharply with Girona's dismal away record of minimal points per game. All statistical models favour the home side, yet the market prices Girona as favourites, likely overvaluing them based on past reputation from higher divisions.

odds available at 09:45

All the models make Cordoba the favourite at home (fair odds roughly 1.89-2.44) yet the market prices them at 2.90, seemingly still crediting Girona's top-flight reputation despite their poor away form and lower ELO rating. Recent home form and expected goals both favour Cordoba, making this a reputation-driven mispricing.

odds available at 09:45

Cordoba’s recent home form and expected-goals profile clearly beat Girona’s weak away numbers, and ELO also leans home, yet the market still prices Girona as favourites. That looks like name-bias mispricing rather than current performance.

odds available at 09:45

All statistical models — short-term form score, medium-term form, Poisson models, goal difference projections, and ELO ratings — value Cordoba significantly higher than the market price of 2.90. Cordoba's excellent short-term home form contrasts sharply with Girona's recent struggles, making this a prime value selection.

odds available at 09:45