The market has Cottbus as clear favourites at 3.20, but the Poisson model expects 2.75 goals for the home side against a St Pauli team that has scored just 0.89 per game over 12 matches. The goal-difference model's fair home odds of 1.96 and the ELO model's 2.41 both suggest the true home win probability is nearer 22% than the 30% implied by the price, making the lay attractive.

odds available at 09:55

Cottbus boasts solid short-term form and high expected goals, yet the market prices them as underdogs. Both the goal-difference and ELO models predict much shorter fair odds for a home win, indicating the market has mispriced this fixture.

odds available at 09:55

Despite Cottbus's strong expected goals, the market prices them at 3.2 which is far below what the ELO model suggests at 2.41. More importantly, the goal-difference model prices Cottbus at 1.96 while the short-term model at 1.35, creating a large discrepancy. St Pauli have been very poor but the market may be overreacting to Cottbus's recent goal-scoring. The ELO rating gap is modest and Cottbus's actual results haven't matched their xG.

odds available at 09:55

Cottbus have the stronger form, while the scoring model projects about 2.75 home goals against fewer than one for St Pauli. Multiple match models make St Pauli substantially less likely to win than the market's 44.6% implied probability.

odds available at 09:55