Both teams are in poor form and expected to produce very few goals, at 0.5 to 0.75 each across both windows. The models make under 2.5 goals a strong favourite. I've discounted the size of the gap heavily, but backing it at even money still looks like value.

odds available at 09:55

Both sides are in dismal scoring form, with the Poisson model projecting roughly half a goal each from these attacks and combined goal expectations of around one per match. Even allowing for regression toward league norms, under 2.5 goals looks comfortably more likely than the 50% the market implies.

odds available at 09:55