Model totals lean under with Poisson around the low‑2s and both windows making Over 2.5 the lesser‑likely side. 2.02 (49.5% implied) sits well below my ~60% estimate.

odds available at 09:45

The short-term and medium-term form models both price West Ham's away win at 2.26 and 2.44 respectively, significantly below the market's 2.98 (33.6% implied). West Ham arrive with a fully fit squad, high relegation-survival motivation, and have won three of their last five away visits to Selhurst Park. Palace face injury doubts for Wharton and Lacroix after their Conference League exertion, which partially offsets their home advantage.

odds available at 09:45

Recent expected goals data for both teams indicate fair odds for over 2.5 goals around 2.4, higher than the market's offering, suggesting value in the under. Short-term trends show moderate scoring potential that aligns with medium-term patterns, supporting a lower likelihood of a high-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

The fair prices from the goal models make this match slightly more likely to stay under than the market suggests. Neither side shows especially strong attacking expectation, and the BTTS numbers also lean toward a less open contest.

odds available at 09:45