The ELO model strongly favours the hosts and the goal-difference model also points their way, while Cordoba’s recent differential is poor. With the market close to evens, the home side looks undervalued.

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The ELO model assigns Deportivo a massive rating advantage (1664 vs 1421), producing fair home win odds of 1.59 — well below the market's 1.97. The goal difference model (both short and medium-term) also strongly favours Deportivo, with Cordoba carrying a dreadful recent goal difference of -11 over the last 6 matches. The market appears to significantly underestimate the home side's strength here.

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The home side holds a very large ELO rating advantage and has a much stronger goal difference record. Multiple statistical models indicate their probability of winning is significantly higher than the market odds suggest.

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Deportivo shows strong short-term and medium-term form, with a significant ELO rating advantage (1664 vs 1421). The predicted odds from both the goal-difference and ELO models strongly favor Deportivo, with market odds (1.97) offering value compared to the model's implied probability (around 63% for home win).

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The ELO model strongly favours a home win with fair odds of 1.59, creating significant value against the market price of 1.97. Deportivo shows better recent form and a substantial goal difference advantage, particularly over the last 6 matches where they've been solid while Cordoba has struggled defensively.

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The ELO model strongly favours Deportivo with fair odds around 1.59, and the goal-difference model across both windows also points to a clear home advantage with fair odds of 1.50 to 1.65. Deportivo have solid medium-term form at 1.75 points per game with a positive goal difference, while Cordoba's goal difference over 6 matches is a dire -11. The market price of 1.97 implies only about 50.8% probability, well below my blended estimate of 58%.

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The ELO model strongly favors a home win with fair odds significantly lower than the market price, supported by a substantial home advantage in team ratings and a positive home goal difference contrasted with the away team's negative record.

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Deportivo's dominant ELO rating (1664 vs Cordoba's 1421) and strong positive goal difference contrast sharply with Cordoba's severe recent defensive struggles. Multiple models consistently indicate a home win probability near 63%, significantly exceeding the market-implied 50.8%, presenting clear back value.

odds available at 09:45