Deportivo's recent form and offensive numbers outshine the visitors considerably. The medium-term data and ELO models indicate a much stronger probability of a home victory than the generous market odds suggest.

odds available at 09:45

Deportivo are in better form with a superior goal difference in recent play, while Valencia have been inconsistent. The models consistently rate Deportivo's chances higher than the 2.68 market price.

odds available at 09:45

Form, ELO and goal-difference models all put a Deportivo win between 1.79 and 2.33 versus a 2.68 market price. Strong short-term home form (2.17 points per game) and a superior expected goals profile support backing the home side at generous odds.

odds available at 09:45

The full model set makes Deportivo the fair favourite (about 1.79-2.33) yet the market offers 2.68. Deportivo's home form is strong (2.17 points per game last six) with the better goal difference, against a Valencia side with a mediocre away record.

odds available at 09:45

Deportivo has been impressive recently, generating 2.17 points per game over their last 6 matches and carrying a +8 goal difference over their last 12. Combined with a 107-point ELO rating lead, statistical fair odds range between 1.79 and 2.13, revealing strong value at 2.68.

odds available at 09:45