This is the Bundesliga's showpiece fixture with both teams in outstanding form — Dortmund averaging 3.0 and Bayern 2.67 points per game over the last 6. The Poisson model projects 2.43 plus 2.98 expected goals, and the short-term fair odds on over 3.5 are just 1.27, making the market price of 1.94 exceptional value. Both teams have scored heavily in recent weeks and the goal difference model strongly supports a high-scoring outcome.