The visitor’s recent form is very weak and the ELO gap supports the hosts; short-term win modelling has Dumbarton much shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

All models suggest strong value in a home win, backed by a significant ELO rating advantage. The selection is further supported by a clear gulf in recent form between the two sides.

odds available at 09:45

Dumbarton's strong short-term form (2.17) and goal difference (-8 vs -23) are significantly better than Edinburgh City's. The predicted odds (1.49) are much lower than the market back price (2.28), indicating value. The ELO model also favors Dumbarton (1.83 vs 4.86).

odds available at 09:45

The market underestimates the hosts despite consistent support from recent form and expected goals data. The ELO model also highlights a clear quality advantage for Dumbarton, making the home win odds highly attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Dumbarton have far superior recent form (short-term 2.17 vs 0.17) and a large ELO advantage (1470 vs 1300) over a very weak Edinburgh City side. The Poisson goal expectation strongly favours the home team, yet the market prices them at 2.28 (44% implied), leaving clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

Dumbarton have much better recent form than Edinburgh City and a clear expected-goals edge. The ELO and goal-difference models also favour the home side, so the price is above fair value.

odds available at 09:45