Dundee Utd's short-term form (2.33/3) is excellent against a Livingston side that has failed to win 33 of their last 34 Premiership matches and conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 games. The ELO model sets fair home odds at 1.64, and the Poisson model projects clear home dominance. Market at 1.78 (56.2% implied) understates the true probability given the convergence of form, ELO, and Poisson signals.

odds available at 09:45

A substantial gap in ELO ratings and a clear advantage in short-term form points to value on the home side. The market price does not seem to fully reflect the gulf in quality and current performance between the two teams.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form, ELO rating advantage, and predicted fair odds (1.64) significantly lower than the market back price (1.78) indicate value. The goal difference and Poisson expected goals also favor Dundee Utd.

odds available at 09:45

Dundee United have strong recent form (2.33 ppg over last 6) and a significant ELO advantage (1536 vs 1313), while Livingston manage only 0.83 ppg. The predicted fair odds from the ELO model (1.64) and short-term model (1.90) are both below the market price of 1.78, indicating solid back value.

odds available at 09:45

ELO model strongly favours Dundee Utd (1.64 fair), short-term form model 1.90, with a 220-point ELO gap. Home side in excellent recent form while Livingston have struggled. Market 1.78 offers slight value.

odds available at 09:45