Short- and medium-term form with better expected goals favour Dundee, and the ELO model gives a clear home-strength edge. Market has Dundee as underdogs, which disagrees with the data.

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The analysis indicates a significant mispricing by the market. Both the standard and ELO models favour a Dundee win, with the ELO model suggesting fair odds around 1.68 compared to the market price of 2.96. Dundee's recent home form is strong, making them an excellent value bet against the market favourite.

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Despite the market placing St Johnstone as favourites, Dundee have a superior ELO rating and significantly stronger form over the last six matches. Laying the away side capitalises on this massive discrepancy between the statistical profile and market pricing.

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Dundee has a very large ELO advantage at home (1521 vs 1310) and better recent form. All three predicted match odds models favour Dundee (1.68-2.04), yet the market has them at 2.96 as the underdog. Notable back value if the ELO gap is genuine.

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Solid recent home form and a clear expected goals advantage point to a stronger home performance than the market-implied probability suggests, offering value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Both form-model windows price Dundee around 2.04 and the ELO model even shorter, against a market of 2.96 — a large rating gap in the home side's favour with better form scores over both windows. The visitors' strong goal-difference numbers likely reflect lower-level opposition, so I back the home side at a small stake given the market's disagreement.

odds available at 09:45

Dundee have shown solid home performances recently against this opponent, while the visiting team has struggled to match that consistency. The statistical models clearly favor the home side, and the available odds represent significantly better value than the underlying data supports.

odds available at 09:45