Short-term form and expected goals point to Dunfermline controlling while Arbroath create very little; both time windows price Over 2.5 longer than the market and the models rate BTTS as unlikely, all aligning with a low-scoring game.

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Every model points toward Dunfermline: short-term form model gives fair odds of 1.41, the goal-difference model 1.90, medium-term form model 1.89, and ELO 2.08 — all well below the market's 2.28. Arbroath's Poisson xG over the last 6 games is just 0.33, indicating severe attacking weakness. The market at 43.9% implied is undervaluing the home side across all signal windows.

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The analysis indicates strong value on a home win. Dunfermline's short-term form is excellent, contrasting sharply with Arbroath's poor recent results. All statistical models, particularly those based on recent form and expected goals, suggest Dunfermline's fair odds should be significantly lower than the available market price.

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Dunfermline shows dominant short-term form (2.17 points per game over last 6 matches) and a significant ELO rating advantage (1580 vs 1464). The predicted fair odds for a home win (1.41-2.08 across models) are substantially lower than the market back price of 2.28, indicating value. The Poisson model also projects higher expected goals for the home side (1.65 vs 0.33).

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Dunfermline have dominant short-term form (2.17 pts/game vs Arbroath's 0.5) and a massive expected goals advantage (1.65 vs 0.33) over the last 6 matches. The Poisson model fair odds of 1.41 suggest the market price of 2.28 significantly undervalues a home win, and the ELO rating gap (1580 vs 1464) further supports this edge.

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Arbroath's short-term Poisson xG is just 0.33, and their recent form score of 0.50 over 6 matches is dire. The medium-term BTTS fair odds of 2.28 imply only a 44% BTTS chance, while the market prices BTTS Yes at 54%. This is a Premiership playoff quarter-final first leg — typically cagey — and these sides drew 0-0 just four days ago. Dunfermline's strong home form should control this match.

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The home team demonstrates strong short-term form and a superior ELO rating, while the away side shows poor recent results and negative goal difference. Multiple statistical models suggest fair odds for a home win below 2.0, indicating value against the market price of 2.28.

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Dunfermline's dominant short-term home form (2.17 points per game) and Arbroath's critically poor away form (0.5 points per game) are reinforced by expected goals data showing Dunfermline creating consistent chances (1.65 xG) while Arbroath struggles to threaten (0.33 xG). All three statistical models—short-term form, medium-term trends, and ELO ratings—consistently rate Dunfermline's win probability significantly above the market's implied probability of 43.9%.

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Dunfermline have the much better short-term form and a far stronger expected-goals split, while Arbroath's recent attacking output looks very weak. The main win models mostly make the home side shorter than 2.28, so the market appears to underrate a Dunfermline win.

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The statistical models heavily favour a Dunfermline win, with the short-term form model pricing fair odds at just 1.41. Dunfermline's strong recent home form and positive goal differential point to clear value against a struggling Arbroath side, making the market back price of 2.28 highly attractive.

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Multiple analysis signals strongly favour Dunfermline: vastly superior short-term form (2.17 vs 0.5), much higher Poisson expected goals (1.65 vs 0.33), a +116 ELO advantage, and a far stronger 12-match goal difference (+10 vs -1). All three predicted-odds models (form, goal-difference, ELO) price the home win between 1.41 and 2.08, well below the 2.28 market back price, indicating clear value.

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Strong short-term home form and high Poisson expected goals for the home team suggest a high-scoring match, with the predicted odds for over 2.5 goals being lower than the market odds.

odds available at 09:45