Both windows project low totals (combined xG ~1.9) and rate over 2.5 near 3.3–3.6, implying ~70% for the under versus a market ~48%. Montpellier’s recent attacking output is muted, reinforcing a lower-scoring script.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term and medium-term models both put fair home odds around 2.0-2.1 while the market offers 2.42; ELO rating also favours the home side and Poisson xg supports a home edge.

odds available at 09:45

Both short-term and medium-term goal projections point to a low-scoring game, with Montpellier carrying very limited attacking output. The fair prices for total goals and both teams scoring are both lower-scoring than the market, so Under 2.5 looks too big.

odds available at 09:45

The models heavily favour a low-scoring match, projecting a very high probability for Under 2.5 goals across both short and medium-term windows. Combined with low expected goals for the away side, the market price for Under 2.5 offers substantial value.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and a favourable ELO model rating suggest Dunkerque has a higher chance of winning than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model suggests a low-scoring match with both teams under 1.2 expected goals combined, and the predicted fair odds for BTTS No are 2.88-2.99 while market offers 2.28. Home form is weak (1.0 points per game last 6) and Montpellier's away form is only marginally better. The goal difference data shows tight, low-scoring tendencies.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model projects a low-scoring affair with combined expected goals well under two, and the statistical fair odds for over 2.5 goals are significantly higher than the market price, indicating strong value on the under.

odds available at 09:45

Both short and medium-term models price over 2.5 goals around 3.3-3.6, implying under is worth roughly 1.40, yet the market offers 2.10. Combined expected goals are under two per game across both windows, with Montpellier's attack projecting well below one goal. Multiple aligned low-scoring signals make this the clearest value on the card.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams project very low combined expected goals around 1.8 per match, with the scoring model suggesting a minimal probability of both teams finding the net. The market's near coin-flip pricing for under 2.5 goals significantly understates the likelihood of a tight, defensive contest.

odds available at 09:45

Both short- and medium-term Poisson projections sit under 2.0 combined expected goals, with the away attack particularly muted. Fair price for under is materially shorter than the 2.10 on offer, so the market is overpricing goals.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have been in modest recent form, with the home side averaging 1.0 points per game and the visitors 1.5 in their last six outings. The combined statistical projection for goals is low, suggesting a tightly contested match. The model predicts under 3.5 goals at 88.6% probability, significantly higher than the market's 70% implied by the odds of 1.43.

odds available at 09:45