Eibar's short-term form is very strong (2.5 points per game over last 6) and their 12-month record is solid at 2.0, while Cadiz are in poor form (1.17 over 6 months) with a negative goal difference. The ELO model puts fair home odds at 1.87, but the 12-month statistical model at 2.06 and short-term model at 2.05. The market at 1.79 appears to be underpricing Eibar relative to models, offering value.