Eibar have the edge across recent form, Poisson xG and ELO strength, with fair home prices around 1.75–1.90. Taking 2.20 represents clear value.

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Eibar's home form is strong (2.0 over 6, 2.33 over 12 games) with a 12-game goal difference of +6, and the ELO model (1.73), goal-difference model (1.57–1.96), and form model (1.77–1.90) all place fair home odds well below the market's 2.20. Multiple signals converge, with the market implying only 45.5% probability against an estimated true probability comfortably above 50%.

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All statistical models, including the ELO model, point to a home win with fair odds estimated below 1.90. Eibar also possesses a significant ELO rating advantage and excellent home form over both short and medium-term windows, making the market price attractive.

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Eibar's strong short-term (2.0) and medium-term (2.33) form, combined with a positive goal difference (6) and predicted odds (1.77) lower than market odds (2.20), indicates BACK value. The Poisson model also favors Eibar with higher expected goals.

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Eibar's excellent medium-term form (2.33 ppg) and strong ELO rating (1633 vs 1438) point to a clear home advantage. The Poisson and goal-difference models both favour Eibar, and the market at 2.20 underestimates their win probability.

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All three statistical models favour Eibar with fair odds between 1.73 and 1.90, well below the market price of 2.20. Eibar's medium-term home form is excellent at 2.33 points per game with a +6 goal difference, and they hold a large ELO advantage (1633 vs 1438). Research confirms two consecutive away wins and strong defensive organisation under their new coach. Granada have never won at Ipurua.

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Home side shows markedly better short-term form, substantially higher ELO rating and positive goal difference. Predicted fair odds near 1.77-1.9 versus market 2.2 indicates the market under-rates the home win.

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Eibar rate better on recent form, medium-term form, expected goals and long-term strength. All three win-pricing views have the home side shorter than the market, so this is a clear home value spot.

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The market implies a tight contest, but the ELO model and Poisson projections all price the home side significantly shorter. The hosts boast excellent medium-term form and a superior goal difference over the visitors, presenting solid back value.

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Eibar's strong home form and Granada's struggling away form make Eibar a more likely winner than the market odds suggest.

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Eibar show strong short-term home form averaging 2 points per game, and the Poisson model projects them to create 1.81 expected goals against Granada's 1.0. The ELO model makes Eibar a 1.73 fair-value favourite, while the goal-difference model prices them at 1.57, yet the market offers 2.2. Multiple signals align for home value.

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Eibar's strong short-term home form and superior expected goals contrast with the market's underestimation, offering clear value on the home win.

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Eibar have stronger short-term and medium-term form, a clear ELO advantage, and the goal-difference model also favours the home win. The market implies only 45.5%, while the main fair-odds signals sit closer to a home favourite.

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Eibar carry excellent home form over both short and medium windows, a strongly positive goal difference and a large ELO advantage, with fair odds clustering around 1.7-1.9. The 2.20 back price meaningfully undervalues a home team backed by consistent, aligned signals.

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All models point to Eibar as a much stronger side on current form, goal difference and ELO rating, with fair odds around 1.7-1.9. The 2.20 available is therefore generous value on a home win.

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Eibar hold clear advantages in recent form, longer-term goal difference and ELO strength. All three modelling approaches favour the home win at fair odds below the available price.

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All models make Eibar around 1.73-1.90 to win against a market price of 2.20, backed by strong home form (2.0 vs 1.17 recently, 2.33 over twelve games), a large ELO gap and a big goal-difference advantage. Every signal points the same way, implying roughly 50-55% win probability versus the market's 45%.

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All three models align strongly on an Eibar win, with fair odds between 1.73 and 2.15 versus the market's 2.20. Eibar's recent and medium-term form is excellent, and they hold a 195-point ELO advantage over a Granada side with poor form.

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Every model — recent form, goal difference, ELO and Poisson — prices the home win shorter than the market (fair odds roughly 1.6-2.15 versus 2.20 on offer). Eibar's recent and medium-term form is clearly superior (2.0/2.33 PPG against 1.17/1.08), the ELO gap is large, and the 12-match goal difference is +6 against -5.

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Short and medium-term home form are both strong while Granada’s form is mediocre, and the ELO gap heavily favours Eibar. Fair home odds from the models sit around 1.7–1.9 versus a market price of 2.20, giving a clear multi-signal edge.

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Eibar displays strong recent and medium-term form (averaging over 2.0 points per game) alongside a commanding goal difference and ELO rating advantage. Every statistical model prices an Eibar win well below the market odds of 2.20, creating a clear and consistent back value opportunity.

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Eibar holds clear form superiority with better recent points-per-game record than Granada, and the statistical goal expectancy model shows home advantage. The market's 2.20 odds undervalue this home win probability based on the data.

odds available at 09:45