Poisson and both form windows make Eibar strong favourites, and ELO supports a solid home edge. At 2.66 the market is far too generous.

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Eibar's form (2.0 vs 0.83) and strong ELO edge (1693 vs 1535) support a home win, but the Poisson model prices them as a heavy favourite (fair odds 1.30) while the market offers 2.66. The gap is large but multiple signals align, so a moderate stake is justified.

odds available at 09:45

Incredible value on the home side. The ELO model heavily favours Eibar, and their strong short-term form and expected goals output indicate fair odds closer to 1.40-1.80. Getting 2.66 in the market is a clear mispricing.

odds available at 09:45

Eibar have the stronger form, far superior expected-goals outlook, and the ELO model also favours the home side. The market implies only 37.6%, which looks short of the statistical case.

odds available at 09:45

Eibar's form advantage and projected scoring margin are substantial, with Mallorca forecast below one goal in both windows. Every model favours Eibar, while the market prices them at only a 37.6% implied chance.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model rates Eibar an overwhelming favourite (fair odds around 1.30-1.39) on the back of strong home form (2.0/2.33 vs 0.83/0.75) and a 1.97 vs 0.33 goal expectation edge, and the ELO model also prefers Eibar. The 2.66 on offer is well above the modelled fair price.

odds available at 09:45

Home form is clearly better, ELO favours Eibar, and short-term attack/defence numbers are one-sided. Even blending the more conservative ELO/goal-difference views still leaves true probability comfortably above the market-implied ~38%.

odds available at 09:45

Eibar's home form is excellent while Mallorca has taken barely any points away, and the Poisson goal expectations are heavily lopsided toward the home side. All the statistical models price Eibar shorter than the 2.66 available, so there is clear back value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Home side strong in attack and holds ELO advantage; model expects home win ~53% versus market implied 38%.

odds available at 09:45

Eibar's recent form and expected goal projections are vastly superior to Mallorca's, supported by a healthy ELO rating lead. Fair odds models across all windows rate the home win between 1.30 and 2.39, creating a large edge at 2.66.

odds available at 09:45