The goal models show a large xG gap to the hosts and the ELO view also leans Eibar, making 2.18 an overestimate by the market.

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All analysis models point towards a mispriced home win, with statistical fair odds calculated to be significantly lower than the available market price. The home side's form is considerably stronger than the visitor's, who have struggled recently and are on a seven-game losing streak on the road. The ELO rating difference also strongly favours Eibar.

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Eibar have the stronger recent form, the clearer expected-goals edge, and both the form-based and ELO views make them shorter than the market does. Valladolid's recent results and goal difference are poor, so the home win looks underpriced.

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All models identify Eibar as a strong favourite, supported by excellent recent form, goal expectation, and a significant ELO rating advantage over Valladolid. With fair odds estimated around 1.63 by the ELO model, the market's offering of 2.18 heavily underestimates the home side.

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Eibar's ELO (1609) and short-term form (2.0 ppg with 2.12 xG) vastly outweighs Valladolid (1381 ELO, 0 form). Fair odds from ELO model at 1.63 make 2.18 a strong value back.

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Eibar shows dominant short-term form at 2.0 PPG with 2.12 xG, while Valladolid has 0.0 PPG and 0.33 xG. The predicted fair odds for a home win are 1.26-1.65 across models, yet the market offers 2.18. This 33% gap between fair value and market price represents clear value, supported by both form and goal difference metrics.

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Eibar are strongly favoured by the short-term, medium-term and ELO win projections, while Valladolid's recent form and goal difference are poor. The market prices Eibar at about 46%, but the aligned analysis supports a materially higher win chance.

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Eibar hold a large ELO edge and much stronger form across both windows against a winless, low-scoring Valladolid; the fair odds for the home win sit well below the 2.18 on offer.

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Eibar's recent form, expected goals and strength rating all favour a home win, while Valladolid are in very poor form with negligible attacking output. The 2.18 price understates Eibar's probability.

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Eibar have a major form advantage, while the goal-expectation, goal-difference and ELO models all favour a home win. The market implies only a 45.9% chance, below a conservative blended estimate.

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Every model — form-based, goal-difference and ELO — prices an Eibar win shorter than the 2.18 available, with the ELO gap of over 220 points being especially large. Valladolid have taken no points from their last six with a heavily negative goal difference.

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Eibar's strong recent form (2.0+ PPG), a 228-point ELO rating advantage, and a Poisson model projecting 2.13 vs 0.33 expected goals all point to a home win being significantly undervalued at 2.18. The medium-term and ELO models both price Eibar around 1.63-1.65.

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Eibar's recent form is strong (two points per game over the last six) while Valladolid have lost all six and produce almost nothing going forward (0.33 expected goals). Every statistical model prices the home win between roughly 1.26 and 1.90, well below the 2.18 available, and second-tier markets are less efficient. Stake kept moderate given yesterday's caution on model-unanimous home backs.

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Short- and medium-term home form is strong while the away side has barely scored a point. ELO, Poisson and goal-difference models all price a home win clearly shorter than the market, giving a coherent multi-signal edge.

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Eibar enters in dominant form compared to Valladolid, who have suffered six consecutive defeats. Multiple statistical models—including short-term Poisson expectations, medium-term goal difference, and ELO ratings—project fair odds for a home victory between 1.26 and 1.65, revealing substantial back value at the market price of 2.18.

odds available at 09:45