Espanyol’s short-term form is poor with a negative goal trend, while medium-term and ELO do not have them as strong favourites. The market overestimates the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Espanyol are on a 15-match winless streak in 2026, making their price as favourites highly questionable. In contrast, Levante have been in good form, winning three of their last four league matches. All analysis models indicate that the home side is significantly overpriced, presenting a clear value opportunity to bet against them.

odds available at 09:45

Combined short-term Poisson xG of just 1.83 and medium-term of 1.92 strongly support a low-scoring match. Both teams are in dire form with 0.33 and 0.67 ppg over the last six matches. The analysis prices over 2.5 goals at 3.33-3.60 fair odds, indicating the probability of staying under 2.5 is considerably higher than the market's implied 53.5%.

odds available at 09:45

This projects as a low-event game: both teams have poor short-term form, the expected goals are modest in both windows, and the fair odds for over 2.5 are much bigger than the market price. That makes the under the clearer value side.

odds available at 09:45

Espanyol have been in terrible form recently, securing very few points over their last six matches. Both the ELO and Poisson models suggest their fair odds should be much higher than the 2.14 offered by the market, presenting a strong case to lay the home side.

odds available at 09:45