Both form windows project this as a low-event game with very modest expected goals for each side. The BTTS pricing also leans against an open match, so under 2.5 looks undervalued.

odds available at 09:45

Under 2.5 goals is priced at an implied 57.1%, but the goal models point to a lower-scoring match. Both teams have modest scoring expectations and the both-teams-to-score profile also leans against an open game.

odds available at 09:45

Both form windows project fewer than two combined expected goals and price over 2.5 at 3.60. That supports an under probability comfortably above the 57.1% implied by the market.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides project under a goal each per game in both sample windows, and the goals model rates over 2.5 as unlikely (fair odds around 3.60) versus a market under price of just 1.75. Two evenly matched, low-scoring teams make the under the clearest angle here.

odds available at 09:45

Expected goals are subdued for both teams and fair over 2.5 odds are long, implying a clear under lean. The market under price still understates how likely a low-scoring stalemate is.

odds available at 09:45