Multiple models favour Everton at home: ELO fair odds 2.07, Poisson 6-game model 1.75, goal-difference models 1.74-1.90. Crystal Palace's form is dire at 0.67 over 6 games with -9 GD over both windows. The ELO gap (1554 vs 1437) also supports Everton. The market at 2.30 implies just 43.5%, offering a modest but real edge for the home side on opening day.

odds available at 09:45

Everton's underlying numbers are stronger than the market price implies, while Palace's recent form and goal difference are notably poor. Multiple model estimates put Everton's true win probability above the 43.5% implied by 2.30.

odds available at 09:45

All models rate the home win between 1.74 and 2.07 versus the 2.30 available, with Everton holding a clear Poisson expected-goals edge. Palace's recent form is weak with a goal difference of minus nine across both windows.

odds available at 09:45

All three models lean Everton, with fair home odds around 1.75-2.05 against a Palace side whose away form and goal difference are both poor. The 2.30 on offer implies about 43%, several points below the modelled likelihood.

odds available at 09:45