Short-term form and expected-goals data point to a high-event game, with both sides contributing. The model makes over 2.5 a stronger favorite than the market.

The short-term model predicts fair odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.57 — significantly lower than the market's 1.78 — suggesting goals are somewhat expected. However, the medium-term model (12 matches) puts fair over 2.5 odds at 1.81, closer to market. The under 2.5 at 2.26 offers value given Everton's low attacking output (1.32 xG short-term) and Man Utd's inconsistency; both teams have been prone to low-scoring encounters in their recent form windows.