Lincoln’s red-hot form and high attacking output lift game tempo, and the medium-term baseline also favors goals. The over is underpriced relative to our projections.

Lincoln's short-term form is outstanding at 2.67 points per game over 6 matches with a +14 goal difference, producing 2.12 xG versus Exeter's 0.99. The ELO model (fair odds 1.94) aligns with the market price, but the goal-difference model prices Lincoln at just 1.78 and the Poisson model at 1.58, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in Lincoln's dominance.