Short-term expected goals are low (~1.5 combined) and both recent and medium-term models lean under. With weak recent form on both sides, the market overestimates the chance of multiple goals.

The market prices Kocaelispor at 2.24 (44.6% implied), but the short-term statistical model puts them at 5.53 fair odds and the ELO model at 3.34 — both suggesting the market significantly overestimates Kocaelispor's win probability. Laying Kocaelispor at 2.28 appears to offer value as multiple models point to a true win probability well below 44%.

Despite the market favouring the away side, all of our statistical models indicate significant value on a home win. The predicted fair odds from ELO, form, and goal-difference models are all substantially lower than the available price, suggesting the home team is being underestimated.