The ELO model strongly favours Falkirk at home (fair odds 1.70) against a St Mirren side with a much lower adjusted rating (1335 vs 1540). The Poisson model projects a clear home xG advantage (2.12 vs 0.99), and the short-term form model suggests fair home win odds of 1.58 — both well below the market price of 2.12, implying the market is materially underestimating Falkirk's chances.

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The analysis shows a clear edge on a Falkirk win, with form, goal expectation, and ELO models all suggesting fairer odds should be much shorter. The significant ELO advantage for the home side, in particular, suggests the market is underestimating their chances.

odds available at 09:45

Falkirk have a strong expected goals advantage in the Poisson model, and the ELO rating heavily favours them despite poor recent form. The market price of 2.12 is higher than the model's fair odds, suggesting value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and expected goals heavily favour Falkirk, while the ELO model also highlights a significant class advantage over St Mirren, making the market price overly generous.

odds available at 09:45