The ELO model (1649 vs 1448) prices the home win at 1.71, the goal-difference model at 1.70 (medium-term), and Famalicao's 12-match form (1.83 ppg) significantly outpaces Alverca (0.75 ppg). The market's implied probability of 51.8% at 1.93 understates the consistent multi-model edge favouring the home side.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model and medium-term form analysis both suggest Famalicao are a stronger favorite than the market price indicates. With a significant ELO rating advantage and solid underlying performance data, there is clear value in backing the home side to win.

odds available at 09:45

Famalicao's ELO rating (1649 vs 1448) and medium-term form (1.83 vs 0.75) are far superior, and the Poisson model gives them 1.73 expected goals against 0.91. The market at 1.93 implies only 51.8%, while the ELO model's fair odds of 1.71 suggest the home side is undervalued.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model (1649 vs 1448) gives fair home odds of 1.71, and the medium-term goal difference model agrees at 1.70, both well below the market price of 1.93. Famalicao's solid medium-term form (1.83 PPG over 12) and positive goal difference (+4) support the home win case. Edge is moderate but consistent across independent models.

odds available at 09:45

Famalicao holds a 200-point ELO advantage with the ELO model implying fair odds of 1.71 and the medium-term match odds model showing 1.76. Stronger short and medium-term form plus a positive goal difference versus Alverca's negative support the home side. Market price of 1.93 offers modest value.

odds available at 09:45

Famalicao hold a strong ELO edge and better medium-term form over a poor Alverca side, with model fair odds near 1.71-1.76 against a market price of 1.93. The home advantage and goal difference trend support back value.

odds available at 09:45

Famalicao hold a substantial ELO gap and clearly superior medium-term form against an away side averaging half a point per game. Model fair odds cluster around 1.70–1.80 while the market still offers 1.93, a clean edge in the preferred favourite range.

odds available at 09:45