The ELO model and short/medium-term form strongly favour Fenerbahce. Fair prices across models are shorter than the market.

odds available at 10:45

Every model strongly favours Fenerbahce: the Poisson model implies ~85% away win probability, the ELO model fair value is 1.39, and the goal-difference model gives 1.17, all significantly below the 1.52 market price. Fenerbahce's excellent medium-term form (2.33 points per game over 12 matches) against a home side averaging just 0.75 points per game over the same period, combined with a massive ELO gap of 334 points, makes this a clear back value opportunity.

odds available at 10:45

Fenerbahce is strongly favoured by every statistical model, underpinned by a massive ELO rating advantage and far superior form. The market odds are generous compared to the model's calculated fair odds, offering solid value on a clear favourite.

odds available at 10:45

Fenerbahce shows dominant short-term and medium-term form, with significantly higher expected goals and ELO ratings. The market odds underestimate their strong away performance, offering value for a back bet.

odds available at 10:45

Fenerbahce shows excellent recent form with strong away performances, while the home team has been struggling. The ELO model and statistical predictions all heavily favor an away win, making the market odds of 1.52 offer good value compared to the predicted fair odds.

odds available at 10:45