Market expects a shootout, but our numbers still give the under around mid‑40s probability (vs ~32% implied); medium‑term trend and modest xG baseline support the contrarian side.

odds available at 09:45

The market prices the home side as a strong favourite, but the ELO and medium-term models suggest the match is much more evenly balanced. The away team also boasts superior recent form, indicating that the home team is significantly overrated at these odds.

odds available at 09:45

Heidenheim's strong home attack (1.81 xG last 6) and Mainz's decent away form (1.83 ppg) suggest both are likely to score. The predicted BTTS odds of 1.63-1.81 are well above the 1.48 market price, indicating the market is underestimating this outcome.

odds available at 09:45

Heidenheim's strong recent form and favorable ELO rating make them a good value at the current odds, with the market slightly underestimating their chances of winning.

odds available at 09:45