Heidenheim have a poor form score of just 0.67 over the last six matches and a Poisson expected goals of only 0.65, while Stuttgart's expected goals of 2.52 reflects dominant short-term attacking output. The ELO model places Stuttgart's win probability at 63% (implied fair odds 1.59), and both the goal-difference and statistical models heavily favour Stuttgart. The market at 1.74 implies 57.5%, which looks too generous for Stuttgart away.