All analysis models indicate value on a home win. The ELO model suggests fair odds of 1.76, and the goal-difference model is even more bullish at 1.43. The visitors have an extremely poor recent goal difference, reinforcing the data-driven case for a home victory.

odds available at 09:55

Strong short-term and medium-term home form, combined with a significant ELO rating advantage (1600 vs 1412), suggests Heidenheim is undervalued. The predicted fair odds (1.76) are lower than the market back price (1.70), indicating value. Poisson expected goals and goal difference metrics also favor the home side.

odds available at 09:55

Heidenheim's strong short-term goal difference and the ELO model's clear favouritism point to a home win. Osnabruck's poor form and negative goal difference across both windows suggest they are the weaker side.

odds available at 09:55

Heidenheim have a substantial ELO advantage of nearly 190 points and stronger short-term form and goal difference than Osnabruck, who have been badly outscored recently. The ELO and short-term match odds models both fair-price Heidenheim well shorter than 1.70, indicating clear back value.

odds available at 09:55

The ELO model and goal-difference model both strongly favour Heidenheim, whose home xG dwarfs Osnabruck's, and the visitors carry a heavily negative goal difference over both windows. Fair odds around 1.55-1.76 sit below the 1.70 back price, giving clear value on a dominant home side.

odds available at 09:55