Both Fenerbahce and Besiktas carry very high expected goals over both 6 and 12-match windows (2.24/2.09 and 2.25/1.95 respectively), with the Poisson model placing fair odds for over 3.5 goals at just 1.59 over 6 matches — implying Under 3.5 is only around 38% likely. Yet the market prices Under 3.5 at 1.50, implying 67% probability, a substantial overestimation. This is a high-profile derby with both teams in strong attacking form.

odds available at 09:45

Fenerbahce's strong form and home advantage are reflected in the predicted odds, which are lower than the market's 2.04. This offers marginal value, though the match is closely contested.

odds available at 09:45

This is a high-profile Istanbul derby with combined Poisson xG of 4.33 (short-term) and 4.20 (medium-term). The model's fair odds for over 2.5 are 1.24-1.27, significantly below the market price of 1.78. Both teams are in strong attacking form — Fenerbahce averaging 2.24 xG and Besiktas 2.09. The BTTS fair odds around 1.28-1.30 also suggest goals from both sides. Even being cautious about derby context, there's clear value here.

odds available at 09:45