Forfar have better recent form, a superior xG profile, and a slight ratings edge at home across windows. The market has Kelty as favorites, so the home price looks too big.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar carry strong short-term form (2.67 average points per game) and a substantial Poisson xG advantage (1.97 vs 0.99), with fair home win odds estimated at 1.66 short-term and 1.90 medium-term — yet the market prices them at 3.00. The ELO model (2.16 fair) and goal-difference model (1.70 fair over 12 games) all strongly agree the market is drastically overpricing Kelty Hearts and the draw.

odds available at 09:45

All statistical models indicate significant value on a home win, with predicted odds consistently far lower than the market price. Forfar's excellent short-term form and superior ELO rating strongly suggest they are being underestimated by the market.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar's strong short-term form (2.67 PPG over last 6 matches) and +7 goal difference advantage, combined with the Poisson model's 1.97 expected goals, suggest they are undervalued at 3.00. The ELO model also supports this with fair odds of 2.16.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar show strong short-term form with a high points-per-game average and a positive goal difference, while the Poisson model gives them a clear expected goals advantage. The market at 3.00 is significantly higher than the model's fair odds, and the ELO rating also strongly favours the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar display strong short-term home form and positive goal difference, with model fair odds between 1.66-2.16 indicating the 3.00 market price underestimates their chances.

odds available at 09:45

The home side has much stronger recent form, a better goal difference trend, and the chance models make them a clear favourite rather than a 3.00 outsider. The ELO ratings also point toward the hosts, so the market looks too negative on a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar's recent form is outstanding (2.67 ppg over last 6) versus Kelty's 1.33. All models price home win between 1.66 and 2.16 while market offers 3.00. Home ELO advantage (1602 vs 1500) and Poisson xG (1.97 vs 0.99) reinforce the edge.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form at 2.67 points per game with +7 goal difference, solid Poisson expected goals of 1.97, and multiple models predict fair odds around 1.66-1.90. The market offers 3.0 which implies only 33% probability—substantially below the model consensus. Significant value discrepancy with aligned form and goal metrics.

odds available at 09:45

Forfar have much stronger short-term form, better goal-difference signals, and the match-result models consistently make them shorter than the market. At 3.00 the market implies only 33.3%, which looks too low against a fair estimate around 49%.

odds available at 09:45