Frosinone's ELO rating produces a predicted fair price of just 1.44 and the goal-difference model projects 1.65-1.84, all below the market back price of 1.65. Medium-term form is strong (2.25 vs 1.25 for Mantova) and the goal difference over the season (+14 vs +5) shows sustained superiority. Multiple models consistently point to Frosinone being underpriced, with no significant disqualifying factors evident.

odds available at 09:45

There is a very large quality gap between these two sides as indicated by the ELO ratings, which heavily favour the home team. Frosinone also boasts excellent long-term form and a strong goal difference. The ELO model's fair odds are considerably lower than the market price, presenting a clear value opportunity.

odds available at 10:45

Frosinone have strong short-term form (1.83 points per game) and exceptional medium-term form (2.25). Their ELO rating of 1770 versus Mantova's 1459 produces fair odds of 1.44, well below the market's 1.65. The goal difference models and Poisson models also favour a home win. Crucially, this is the final day of the Serie B season and Frosinone are second, just one point from automatic promotion to Serie A — maximum motivation to win.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model implies fair odds of 1.44 and the goal-difference model 1.65, against market back of 1.65. Frosinone have a 311-point ELO advantage, superior form across both windows, and a +14 goal difference over 12 matches.

odds available at 09:45