The home side holds the edge on recent form, expected goals, and ELO. Multiple models make Frosinone a slight favorite, so odds-against looks solid value.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone has a significant ELO advantage and excellent recent form. All statistical models indicate their fair odds should be much lower than the market price, representing clear value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have shown attacking intent in Serie B, with predicted BTTS odds of 1.63 (61.3%) vs market odds of 1.59 (62.9%). The competitive nature of the league and both teams' recent form suggest value in backing 'Yes'.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have strong form at 2.17 PPG over both 6 and 12 matches with a +9 goal difference over 12 games. The ELO model prices them at 1.89 and the medium-term Poisson model at 1.84, both well below the market price of 2.46. Even the short-term model (2.21) and goal-difference model (~1.96-2.23) are below the market offering. The ELO gap is substantial (1743 vs 1588). At 2.46, the market implies only 40.7% — multiple models suggest closer to 48-53%, offering clear value.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have the better short-term form and the match-odds models consistently rate them as the more likely winner than the market implies. Their expected goals are solid across both time windows and the ELO view also leans home. At this price the home win is backable.

odds available at 09:45