Frosinone’s recent form and short-/medium-term result models strongly favour the hosts, while ELO is roughly even. With the market making them outsiders, there’s clear value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone are in exceptional form across both 6- and 12-match windows (2.17 avg points per game both), with a Poisson xG of 2.26 and a +14 goal difference over 12 games. Sassuolo's form is very poor (0.33 over 6 games), and the short-term form model fair odds of 1.43 and goal-difference model of 1.46 strongly indicate the market back of 2.44 is significantly overpriced.

odds available at 09:45

The analysis presents a clear and compelling case for the home side, with all statistical models indicating their fair odds should be much lower than what the market offers. Frosinone's excellent short-term form contrasts sharply with Sassuolo's extremely poor results. The discrepancy between the underlying data and the market price is too large to ignore.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone's exceptional form (2.17 over last 6 and 12 matches) and strong goal difference (+14 over 12 matches) make them clear favorites. The ELO model's predicted odds (1.98) are significantly lower than the market's 2.44, indicating substantial value. Their Poisson expected goals (2.26) also suggest offensive dominance.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone are in excellent form (2.17 points per game over both 6 and 12 matches) with a +14 goal difference over 12 games, while Sassuolo have managed just 0.33 form over six matches. The Poisson model projects 2.26 expected goals for Frosinone against 0.82 for Sassuolo, and the ELO rating gap (1585 vs 1450) supports a home win at odds implying only 41%.

odds available at 09:45

All three model families favour Frosinone: the short-term match odds model gives fair odds of 1.43, the medium-term model 1.72, and the ELO model 1.98 — all significantly below the market price of 2.44. Frosinone are unbeaten in 18 of their last 20 matches, sit 9th with strong home form (2.17 ppg across both windows), and carry a +14 goal difference over 12 matches. Sassuolo have key absences including Koné (broken ankle), while external probability estimates from multiple sources converge around 48-52% for a Frosinone win versus the market's 41%.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have a clear short-term form edge, the stronger attacking projection and the better medium-term goal difference. All three match-odds views make the home win shorter than the market price.

odds available at 09:45

All predictive indicators highlight Frosinone as a clear favourite, with excellent recent expected goals and a robust ELO advantage over Sassuolo. The market is inexplicably offering underdog odds on a home win, representing exceptional value.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models align strongly on Frosinone: short-term match odds model implies 1.43, medium-term 1.72, ELO 1.98, and goal-difference models favor home at 1.46-2.02. Poisson expected goals shows a huge gap (2.26 vs 0.82), and home form (2.17 pts/game) crushes Sassuolo's 0.33. Market price of 2.44 significantly underrates the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone exhibits exceptional short-term home form and a strong goal difference, while Sassuolo struggles with poor away form and low expected goals. The statistical models heavily favour a home win, indicating significant value against the market price.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies Frosinone win only about 41%, but the statistical fair prices are consistently much shorter across recent form, goal-difference and ELO views. Frosinone have a strong short- and medium-term form advantage, better goal trend, and the expected-goals profile clearly favours the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone show excellent short and medium-term home form while Sassuolo are badly out of form with the away side's recent points per game among the weakest in the data. Home Poisson expected goals strongly outweigh the away side, and all three fair-value models price the home win well below the available back price, signalling clear value.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have a major form advantage in both windows, stronger expected scoring and a substantially better medium-term goal difference. Every supplied strength model prices the home win shorter than the market, which implies only a 41.0% chance.

odds available at 09:45

Every modelling angle points the same way: dominant recent home form (2.17 points per game vs 0.33 away), a clear expected-goals edge, a strong medium-term goal difference, and a higher ELO rating, with all fair home odds well below the market price of 2.44. The market appears to be underrating the home side despite consistent statistical superiority.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone’s short- and medium-term form is excellent while Sassuolo’s is very poor. Expected goals, goal-difference models and ELO all point to a home win more strongly than the market price, which underestimates Frosinone.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone displays strong short and medium-term form averaging 2.17 points per game with a +14 goal difference over 12 matches, compared to Sassuolo's 0.33 PPG over 6 matches. All statistical models generate fair odds for a home win between 1.43 and 2.02, highlighting clear value against the market price of 2.44.

odds available at 09:45

Strong home form performances recently, with the home side averaging over 2 points per game in their last six outings, while the away team has managed less than a point per game on average. The home team has also constructed a significantly better goal difference record compared to the visitors. The statistical model rates the home victory at considerably shorter odds than the market currently offers, suggesting the market has not fully accounted for the quality gap.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have far stronger recent form over both short and medium samples, a clear goal-difference advantage, and a much better attacking projection. The statistical fair odds for a home win are consistently shorter than the market price, so the home win looks undervalued.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone dominate every signal: much stronger short and medium-term form, a big goal-difference edge, a clear Poisson scoring advantage, and a sizeable ELO gap, all pointing to a home win far more often than the market price implies. Research confirms Sassuolo are missing a large number of first-team players through injury (including their keeper, a centre-back and multiple midfielders), reinforcing rather than undermining the home-win case.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone are in outstanding form across both windows (2.17 points per game over 12 matches, +14 goal difference) while Sassuolo have managed just 0.33 points per game recently with zero goal difference. The short- and medium-term match-odds models plus the ELO model all make Frosinone clear favourites at roughly 1.4-2.0, so the market's 2.44 looks far too generous for such a strong home side.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone have strong form over both windows, while Sassuolo have very poor form over their last 6. Every model rates a home win at about 50% or more, against 41% implied by the market. I've cut my estimate well below the models' average and kept the stake modest, because the market may be pricing in Sassuolo's established Serie A quality.

odds available at 09:45

Every signal points the same way: strong recent home form (over 2 points per game) against a winless away side, a clear goal-difference and ELO advantage, and a Poisson projection favouring the home team heavily. The market implies only around 41% for the home win, well below what the numbers justify.

odds available at 09:45

Frosinone's short-term form is exceptional compared to Sassuolo's dire run, with significantly higher expected goals and a superior ELO rating. The market appears to be overrating Sassuolo's reputation despite their terrible recent results.

odds available at 09:45

Home side shows strong short‑term form and high expected goals; ELO and goal‑difference models both predict a higher win probability than the market price, indicating clear value.

odds available at 09:45

Every statistical, goal-difference, and ELO model prices a home win between 1.43 and 2.02, well below the market back price of 2.44. Frosinone boast vastly superior short-term and medium-term form alongside a strong goal difference advantage and higher ELO rating.

odds available at 09:45