Multiple models project a lower-scoring match with modest combined xG. The market overstates the chance of three or more goals, making the over a good lay.

odds available at 10:45

Frosinone carry excellent recent form with 2.17 points per game over the last 6 matches and a strong 12-match medium-term record of 2.0, backed by a healthy positive goal difference of +7 over 12 games. The ELO model rates them as clear favourites with fair odds of 1.45, and the goal difference model suggests 1.65, both below the market price of 1.47 — indicating the market is reasonably aligned but the weight of evidence strongly favours the home side against a Bari team in poor form.

odds available at 10:45

While the home side is a strong favorite, the predictive models suggest the market is overestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The model-implied probability for under 2.5 goals is higher than the market-implied probability, offering good value at high odds.

odds available at 10:45

Frosinone's strong recent form and expected goals metrics indicate they are the clear favorites. The market odds offer value for a home win.

odds available at 10:45

Frosinone has superior recent form and a substantial ELO rating advantage. The ELO model predicts fair odds of 1.45 while the market offers 1.47, showing slight value. Their strong home performance and goal difference metrics support a home win.

odds available at 10:45