The model has both teams to score less likely than the market and totals trend below 2.5 across windows. Plus-money on the under captures both signals.

odds available at 09:45

Fulham's stronger home form (2.00 vs 1.17) and expected goals advantage (1.49 vs 1.00) are consistently priced by statistical models at approximately 48% win probability, creating clear value against the market's implied 36% despite recent goal difference volatility.

odds available at 09:45

Fulham rate better on both short-term and medium-term form, with a consistent expected-goals edge and a stronger overall strength rating. The market has Newcastle a little too short compared with the underlying numbers.

odds available at 09:45

Fulham boast strong short-term form and a clear statistical advantage in recent expected goals over Newcastle. The market prices them as distinct underdogs, but the ELO model and short-term projections suggest they should be slight favourites with fair odds closer to 2.05.

odds available at 09:45