Both analysis windows produce modest combined expected goals, with the recent sample especially low at 1.33. The statistical prices consistently favour under 2.5 goals, so the market's 50.8% implied probability appears too low.

odds available at 09:35

Both teams have very low recent goal output, with combined expected goals under 1.5 in the short window and just over 2 in the medium window, giving modelled under 2.5 fair odds well below the 1.97 available. Stake kept small as the short-term signal is unusually extreme.

odds available at 09:35

Poisson goal expectation models project a low-scoring fixture with expected goal totals of 1.33 and 2.08 across short-term and medium-term windows. Derived fair odds for under 2.5 goals sit between 1.18 and 1.53, making the market back price of 1.97 well mispriced in favour of a low goal count.

odds available at 09:35