Germany have been in devastating attacking form, scoring 18 goals across their last five friendly matches, while Curaçao won only one of their last five games and scored just three goals in that span. The market prices this at 64.9% implied probability but the combination of Germany's firepower, Nagelsmann's all-out attack philosophy, and Curaçao's defensive fragility suggests the true probability is closer to 70%.

odds available at 09:45

Germany have won all four 2026 friendlies in high-scoring fashion (4-3, 2-1, 4-0, 2-1) and are in excellent form with Neuer back. Curacao conceded nine goals in recent matches vs Australia and Scotland, and lost 4-1 to Scotland pre-tournament. A motivated Germany at home in a World Cup opener vs a defensively fragile minnow should produce a comfortable 3+ goal margin.

odds available at 09:45

Germany enter on a nine-match winning streak with prolific scoring form (18 goals across their last five games) against tournament debutants Curacao, the smallest nation ever to compete and losers of three of their last four. The huge quality gulf against a side that conceded four-plus in several recent matches makes three or more goals highly likely, giving genuine value over the market-implied 83% at 1.20.

odds available at 09:45