Getafe's short-term form (1.50) is far superior to Osasuna's (0.33), and the ELO model favours Getafe (1543 vs 1439). The Poisson model fair odds of 2.30 and the ELO model's 2.15 both indicate the market price of 2.88 offers BACK value on Getafe.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe have the lowest goal tally in La Liga's top half with just 31 goals all season (0.8 per game), and Osasuna have lost four consecutive matches. The Poisson model gives combined expected goals of just 2.00 (short-term), and the predicted BTTS fair odds of 2.57-3.00 imply only a 33-39% chance both teams score. Bordalás sets up compact, defensive teams that strangle opponents, and Osasuna have no away wins in their last six attempts.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe need a win to secure European football, whereas Osasuna only need a point to survive, which has heavily inflated the draw price. Getafe's strong home advantage and desperation for three points give them a clear edge over an Osasuna side that has lost 5 of their last 6, making the home win massive value compared to their ELO fair odds.

odds available at 09:45