Stronger recent home form and a modest ELO edge make Getafe a slight favorite by the models. With the market pricing them as clear outsiders, there is small but fair back value.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are defensively solid (Getafe average 1.16 goals at home, Rayo 1.08 away). The market's 66.4% probability for Under 2.5 Goals aligns with their recent form, but the predicted Over 2.5 odds (33.6%) suggest the market may be slightly undervaluing the defensive nature of this matchup.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe's short-term home form is strong (2.33 points per game over six home matches) while Rayo's away form is poor (0.83 over six and twelve away matches). Both the form model and the ELO model favour a Getafe win, yet the market prices them as clear outsiders at 3.20, so the price looks generous relative to the underlying signals.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe have scored just 4 goals in 8 La Liga games (0.5 per game), the worst in the division. Key forwards Uche and Juanmi are confirmed out, with Azón and Ünal doubtful. Bordalás's defensive setup and the derby context (6 draws in last 10 H2H meetings) reinforce a low-scoring outcome beyond the market's 66.4% estimate.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term form and defensive solidity both heavily lean towards the hosts, a view reinforced by the goal difference and strength models. The market underestimates this clear home advantage, providing a solid value opportunity to back them.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe boasts outstanding recent and medium-term home form alongside a higher ELO rating, but the market surprisingly favors Rayo Vallecano, underestimating Getafe's formidable home advantage.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo are marginal favourites, but Getafe's home form is stronger than Rayo's away form and the ELO view does not support Rayo being clear top choice. Laying Rayo keeps the draw onside, with only a modest move below market probability.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe hold a clear form advantage over both six and twelve matches, with the goal-difference and ELO models also favouring them. Their estimated chance is above the market-implied 31.3% probability.

odds available at 09:45

Rayo's away form is genuinely poor and consistent across both the short and medium windows (well under a point per game), while Getafe's recent home form is strong, and both the form-based and ELO baselines lean to Getafe rather than to Rayo. The market still makes Rayo the favourite, which looks like reputation pricing rather than current home/away performance, so Getafe is modestly underrated at 3.20.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe's short and medium-term form is clearly stronger than Rayo's, backed by a small ELO edge, and all three fair-value models cluster around odds well below what the market is offering.

odds available at 09:45

Every model (Poisson, goal-difference and ELO) prices Getafe near 2.5-2.7 following strong recent home form (2.33 points per game) against a Rayo side on 0.83 points per game, yet the market back price is 3.2, implying the home side is being underrated.

odds available at 09:45

Every model prices Getafe shorter than the market, with fair odds between 2.15 and 2.71 against 3.20 on offer. Getafe's short- and medium-term form is far better than Rayo's, and the ELO model favours the home side. I've kept the stake small because both teams have similar goal difference and this is a low-scoring matchup.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe's excellent recent form and superior underlying goal expectation contrast sharply with the market pricing, which still favours Rayo Vallecano despite their poor run of form.

odds available at 09:45

Poisson model expects over 2.5 goals about 50% of the time, while the market prices Over 2.5 at 2.96 (34% implied). This substantial gap makes backing the overs attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Getafe enter in vastly superior short- and medium-term form compared to a struggling visiting side, backed by a stronger ELO rating. Every statistical, goal-difference, and ELO model prices a home victory between 2.15 and 2.71 against the market price of 3.20.

odds available at 09:45