The Poisson model points to roughly 2.3 total goals and both short- and medium-term projections make over 3.5 a clear outsider; under 3.5 fairs near 1.26–1.38 versus 1.50 on offer. Girona’s attack is modest while Albacete’s chance creation is low, reinforcing the under.

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Both the short-term form model and the ELO model estimate Girona's true win odds at 1.70–1.89, implying a genuine win probability of around 53–59%. The market prices Girona at 1.57, suggesting 63.7% — a consistent overestimation across multiple models. Girona's modest short-term form (1.0 points per game over six matches) does not justify the market's confidence.

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All statistical models indicate Girona's fair odds are higher than the market price, suggesting the market is overrating the home team. Additionally, news reports indicate Girona has significant absences due to injuries and international duty, particularly in attack, which may limit their effectiveness. This creates value in laying them at the current odds.

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Girona shows strong short-term and medium-term form, with a significant goal difference advantage and higher ELO rating. The predicted fair odds for a home win (1.89-1.70 across models) are substantially lower than the market back price (1.57), indicating the market is underestimating Girona's chances. Multiple models and metrics align in favor of a home win.

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Girona's ELO rating (1628 vs 1423) and goal-difference model both point to a comfortable home win, with fair odds around 1.61-1.70 versus the market's 1.57. The short-term form is weak for both sides, but the goal-difference gap (home +4 vs away -6) and Poisson expected goals (1.49 vs 0.83) support the home side.

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The goal projections point to a fairly controlled match, with both short-term and medium-term numbers keeping the expected total below four goals. The fair price for a high-scoring game is longer than the market suggests, and neither side's attacking profile supports an open shootout.

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The Poisson expected goals over the short-term window total just 2.32, yet the market significantly favours Over 2.5 goals. Short-term and medium-term model projections price the Over well above the available market odds, creating clear value to back the Under.

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Girona have a substantial ELO edge (1628 vs 1423) with the ELO model pricing them at 1.70 and the short-term goal-difference model at 1.61. Home side shows +4 recent goal difference versus Albacete's -6, and the Poisson xG numbers favour Girona clearly. Market price of 1.57 is fair to slightly value.

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Girona's strong short-term home form and the ELO model's favour towards a home win suggest a higher probability of Girona winning than the market implies.

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The goals models make over 3.5 goals notably less likely than the market price implies, with both short- and medium-term projections pointing to a moderate scoring game. Girona are favoured, but Albacete's attacking expectation is modest, supporting the under.

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Both teams enter this fixture with heavily depleted squads; Girona is missing key attacking players due to international duty and injuries, while Albacete also has extensive absences. Statistical projections and this context point to a low-scoring match, offering excellent value on Under 2.5 goals at 2.28.

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The medium-term goals model implies over 2.5 fair odds near 2.02 but the shorter window and combined expected goals support a higher scoring game, with the offered 1.75 price broadly in line yet slightly generous given Girona's attacking home output. Modest, thin edge only.

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The short- and medium-term goal models put the chance of staying under 3.5 at roughly 79% and 72%, respectively. That supports a cautious 75% estimate against the market's 66.7% implied probability.

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The goal models price the over at 2.43 (last 6) and 2.02 (last 12), implying the under should be around 1.70-1.98, while the market offers 2.28. Combined expected goals sit below 2.5 in both windows (2.32 and 2.65), supporting a low-scoring game the market is underpricing.

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Short-term Poisson expected goals total only around 2.3 and the fair over 2.5 odds sit notably longer than the market price; the medium-term view is closer to even but still does not support the market’s heavier over weighting. Recent form scores are modest for both sides, supporting a quieter total.

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Poisson expected goals model suggests moderate scoring probability, market overestimates both-teams-to-score likelihood.

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Both short- and medium-term goal projections point to a low total, with expected goals well below the level needed for four goals. The market's under 3.5 price still looks too short relative to those projections.

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Both the short-term and medium-term statistical models put the fair odds for under 2.5 goals well below the market's back price, implying the market is underrating a low-scoring outcome despite Girona's home advantage. The medium-term Poisson goal expectancy for this fixture is modest, and Albacete's away attack has been weak, supporting a controlled, lower-scoring match.

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