Both time windows lean under with moderate expected goals and no strong BTTS signal. 2.06 sits well above our fair around the mid‑1.6s.

odds available at 09:45

Girona have decent form (1.67 points per game) while Mallorca are winless in their last 6 (0.00). The Poisson model favours Girona (1.65 expected goals vs 0.5) and the predicted odds of 1.52-1.82 suggest the market back price of 2.12 represents good value.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's away form is abysmal at 0 ppg over 6 matches and 0.42 over 12, generating only 0.50-0.75 Poisson xG away. Combined with Girona's home xG of 1.49-1.65, total expected goals are just 2.15-2.24. The statistical models predict Over 2.5 fair odds of 2.57-2.74, implying Under 2.5 probability around 60-63% versus the market's 48.5%.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's critically low expected goals and poor recent scoring output, alongside Girona's modest offensive metrics in current form, indicate a low-scoring match where the market substantially overestimates the likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

odds available at 09:45

Girona have the better form profile and the stronger attacking projection, while Mallorca rate poorly in both recent samples and project below one goal. The match-result models all lean home, and the price is a little bigger than those numbers suggest.

odds available at 09:45

Girona has solid form (1.67 short, 1.75 medium ppg) against Mallorca's collapsing 0 short-term ppg. The ELO model and short-form Poisson favor Girona heavily with predicted odds around 1.52-2.09, making 2.12 fair-to-value.

odds available at 09:45