Short- and medium-term form and Poisson estimates strongly favor Girona, and the ELO model also tilts their way. With market odds much bigger than our fair, the home win is priced generously.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model prices Girona at fair odds of 2.04 versus the market's 2.64, implying the market underestimates Girona's win probability at 37.9% against an ELO-derived estimate of 49%. Girona's Poisson expected goals (1.81) dwarf Mallorca's (0.50), and Mallorca have very poor away form over both windows. The stake is kept low given the moderate confidence level.

odds available at 09:45

There is a strong consensus across all predictive models that the market is underestimating Girona's chances of winning. The home side also possesses a notable ELO rating advantage and solid recent form, making the available odds appear generous.

odds available at 09:45

Girona have the better short-term form (1.5 vs 1.17 points per game) and a far superior Poisson goal expectation (1.81 vs 0.5 expected goals). The match-odds model prices Girona at 1.44 and the 12-match model at 1.52, both much shorter than the 2.64 market back price, suggesting clear value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Girona's short-term Poisson xG is 1.81 vs just 0.5 for Mallorca, and the form-based models price Girona's fair odds at 1.44-1.52. The ELO model also favours the home side at fair odds of 2.04. Girona have won four of their last five matches, scoring 14 goals in 7 league games this season, and their recent 2-0 home win over Albacete confirms their strong home momentum. At 2.64, the market significantly underrates Girona's home advantage and current attacking output.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's attacking expectation is very low across both time windows, while Girona rate as the stronger side and are favoured by the match models. The BTTS pricing looks too optimistic on an away goal given the underlying chance creation numbers.

odds available at 09:45

The market anticipates a closely contested match, but the supplied statistical models indicate clear value on the home side. The ELO strength rating implies fair odds closer to 2.04, while the Poisson goal model projects an even stronger edge based on Girona's superior recent expected goals output. With multiple analysis signals aligned in the same direction, backing the home win at the current market price is a high-value opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's expected goals are very low (around 0.5) across both windows, and the combined Poisson projection points to a low-scoring match. Fair under 2.5 odds from both windows are below the market's 1.88, offering modest value.

odds available at 09:45

Girona are priced at a 37.9% implied chance, but every main match-outcome model makes them shorter than the market. The home side have the better recent form profile, a much stronger scoring projection, and the ELO model also leans towards Girona.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models, including the ELO and short-term form models, indicate a strong home advantage for Girona and estimate fair odds significantly lower than the market price of 2.64. Girona enters the match in strong form with back-to-back home wins, while Mallorca's away offense has struggled heavily, averaging just 0.33 goals per match on the road. Key striker Abel Ruiz is back and scoring, reinforcing a high-value back on the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Girona hold the stronger form profile and are projected to create considerably more goals. Every supplied match-result model rates a Mallorca win below the market's 32.8% implied probability, making the away side suitable to oppose.

odds available at 09:45

All analysis signals favour the home side: Girona's expected goals at home (1.81 vs 0.5 away) are dominant, their recent form and goal difference are superior, and the fair home odds range from 1.44 (Poisson) to 2.23, yet the market offers 2.64. Even the most conservative model (ELO at 2.04) implies clear value, so the market is materially underrating Girona.

odds available at 09:45

Poisson expected goals heavily favour Girona with very low away output, and both short- and medium-term models price the home win shorter than the market. ELO also prefers Girona, while Mallorca's medium-term form is weak. The market is treating this closer to a coin-flip than the underlying numbers support.

odds available at 09:45

Every model in the analysis highlights value on the home win, driven by the visitors generating a minimal 0.50 expected goals per game away from home across both short and medium-term windows. Supported by a 124-point ELO rating edge and strong medium-term home form, market odds of 2.64 offer generous upside.

odds available at 09:45

Girona holds a slight edge in short-term home form compared to Mallorca, and the ELO ratings also favor the home side. The predicted home odds of 1.44 contrast sharply with the market price of 2.64, representing significant value. Additionally, the Poisson goal expectation heavily favors Girona with 1.81 xG versus just 0.5 for Mallorca, further supporting the home win prediction.

odds available at 09:45

Girona's recent home form and expected-goals numbers are clearly stronger than Mallorca's, and the statistical models all price the home side shorter than the market does. I temper the large model gap because the market respects Mallorca, but the home win still looks undervalued at 2.64.

odds available at 09:45

Poisson expected goals strongly favour Girona (1.81 vs 0.50) and both the match-odds and goal-difference models make them clear favourites, yet the market prices them at 2.64. Even the more conservative ELO model implies a shorter price than the market, so the home side looks undervalued at this price.

odds available at 09:45