All three pricing models make Girona bigger than even-money, suggesting the market overstates their win chance. Medium-term and ELO baselines are particularly cautious on a home win, creating lay value.

odds available at 09:45

All four model signals — short-term form (fair 2.23), medium-term form (fair 2.59), ELO (fair 2.51), and goal-difference model (fair 2.31) — agree that Girona are overpriced at 1.97. The market implies a 50.8% win probability for the home side, but no model supports a figure above 43%, and both teams have similar recent form scores. Laying at 1.97 offers a clear multi-signal convergence with manageable liability.

odds available at 09:45

All three predictive models (short-term form, medium-term form, and ELO rating) suggest Girona are overpriced to win this match. Recent form for both teams is poor, with neither side having much to play for, which questions the justification for Girona being such a clear favourite.

odds available at 09:45

Girona and Real Sociedad have both shown consistent goal-scoring form, with the predicted BTTS odds of 1.88 (53.2% probability) compared to the market's 1.72 (58.1% implied probability). The Poisson expected goals also support a high-scoring game, making BTTS a strong value bet.

odds available at 09:45

Girona are priced too short for a match where the underlying numbers are fairly balanced. The fair prices from the models are consistently longer than the market, and Girona's edge in form and expected goals is only marginal rather than strong enough for odds below evens.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show attacking intent in the Poisson projections, with combined expected goals comfortably above the 2.5 threshold across both short and medium-term windows. The ELO and goal-difference models both favour competitive, open matches, and the market price offers value against the predicted fair odds.

odds available at 09:45