Short-term Poisson projects roughly 4.0 expected goals with a very strong home attacking output. Both the 6- and 12-match models price Over 3.5 shorter than the market, indicating value on the high line.

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Both short-term (fair odds 1.32) and medium-term (1.46) Poisson models put the probability of Over 2.5 goals considerably higher than the market-implied 64.9% at 1.54. Go Ahead Eagles' last 5 home games have all cleared the 2.5-goal line, and AZ have seen 2+ goals in each of their last 10 matches, with head-to-head meetings between these sides consistently producing goals. The model-backed edge is supported by the offensive profiles of both teams.

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The analysis indicates a high probability of goals, with short-term expected goals for the match totalling nearly four. Both the short and medium-term models suggest fair odds for this outcome should be considerably lower than the available market price, indicating clear value.

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The analysis shows strong short-term and medium-term form for the home team, with high expected goals (2.84 over 6 matches) and a predicted fair odds of 1.32 for Over 3.5 Goals, suggesting the market is underestimating goal potential. The market odds for Over 2.5 Goals (1.54) are higher than the predicted value, indicating value.

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Go Ahead Eagles have strong recent form (1.83 points per game over 6 matches) and a +14 goal difference in that period, while AZ Alkmaar have poor form (1.0) and a modest +6 GD. The Poisson model predicts 2.84 expected goals for the home side, and the predicted match odds (1.38) are far below the market price of 3.15, suggesting the market is significantly underestimating the home team.

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The Poisson model projects nearly 4 total expected goals (2.84 home + 1.12 away over 6 matches), and both the 6-match and 12-match fair odds for over 3.5 (1.79 and 2.12) sit well below the market's 2.32. Go Ahead Eagles have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 5 home games including two 6-0 wins, while AZ are fatigued from their KNVB Cup final just days ago and have lost 3 consecutive away matches, with key players Koopmeiners and Hornkamp missing through injury.

odds available at 09:45

Recent home form, goal difference and expected-goals numbers all lean clearly to the hosts, and the ELO ratings also make them slight favourites rather than underdogs. With the market still pricing AZ shorter, the home side looks underrated.

odds available at 09:45