Recent home form and short-term modelling favour Go Ahead, while medium-term is at least neutral. At near evens, the market undervalues the hosts slightly.

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Go Ahead Eagles' home expected goals of 2.39 over the last 6 matches, combined with a dominant goal difference of +6 and PEC Zwolle's dismal away form (0.33 points per game), strongly suggests a high-scoring home performance. The Poisson model places fair odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.46, meaning Under 2.5 fair probability is around 31% — the market's 2.70 on Under 2.5 implies 37%, overestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring match.

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The home team shows excellent short-term form and underlying expected goals, while the away team's recent performances have been extremely poor. Multiple statistical models suggest the home win is more probable than the market odds imply.

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Go Ahead Eagles show strong short-term form and a significant ELO advantage, with all models favoring a home win. The market odds underestimate their dominance, particularly given PEC Zwolle's poor recent form.

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The home team shows strong short-term form with 1.5 points per game over the last 6 matches compared to the away team's 0.33, and the statistical models suggest fair odds around 1.54-1.91, indicating value at the market price of 1.93. The ELO rating also favors the home side by a significant margin.

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The Poisson model projects combined xG of 3.54 over the short-term window and 3.44 over the medium-term, with predicted fair odds of 1.46-1.50 for over 2.5 goals — well below the market price of 1.57. Go Ahead Eagles have strong home form (1.5 pts/game short-term, 1.67 medium-term) with a positive goal difference, and the home xG alone exceeds 2.0. This sits in the 1.57 sweet spot identified in yesterday's review.

odds available at 09:55