Grimsby have won five of six recent matches (2.17 ppg) and their medium-term form is equally strong (2.17). The ELO model rates them 1649 vs 1306 and the goal-difference model gives a fair home price of 1.34, shorter than the 1.44 available, so the market is underestimating the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Grimsby have excellent form (2.17 over both 6 and 12 matches) with a +11 goal difference over 12 games. The ELO model gives them fair odds of 1.38, the goal-difference model 1.34 over 12 matches, and the medium-term Poisson model 1.53 — all below or near the 1.44 market price. Crawley are very weak with 0.92 form over 12 matches, a -7 goal difference, and a very low ELO rating of 1306.

odds available at 09:45

Grimsby have a huge ELO gap (1649 vs 1306), excellent short-term form (2.17 ppg) and much higher home xG. Multiple models put fair home odds around 1.34-1.53, offering clear value at 1.44.

odds available at 09:45

Grimsby carry a commanding ELO advantage of over 340 points, strong home form and a far higher goal expectation than out-of-form Crawley. Both the statistical and ELO models rate them well shorter than the market price.

odds available at 09:45