The analysis strongly points towards a low-scoring game, with very low expected goals for both teams based on recent performances. The models estimating the probability of goals suggest that the likelihood of three or more goals is very low, making the current market price for the under selection attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Guingamp are strongly favoured by the market despite poor short and medium-term form. With the Poisson expected goals actually favouring the away side and ELO projecting fair odds of comfortably above 2.00, laying the hosts offers a clear edge.

odds available at 09:45

The recent goal projection totals only 1.17, while the longer-window total remains a low 1.75. Both samples strongly favour under 2.5 goals, comfortably above the market-implied 54.3% probability.

odds available at 09:45

Every model prices Guingamp longer than the market's 1.82-1.86, and the very low combined goal expectation points to an elevated draw chance, making the short home favourite vulnerable. Guingamp's recent form and goal difference do not justify odds-on favouritism.

odds available at 09:45

Exceptionally low recent expected goals output from both sides points heavily toward a tight encounter. Fair odds for under 2.5 goals are assessed between 1.13 and 1.34, making the market price of 1.84 an excellent value opportunity.

odds available at 09:45