Every model consistently assigns Heerenveen a home win probability around 50-52%: the 6-game form model gives fair odds of 2.05, the 12-game gives 1.90, and the ELO model gives 1.91 — all meaningfully longer than the market lay of 1.65. The market is overrating Heerenveen as a heavy favourite when the data suggests a much more open contest.

odds available at 09:45

There is a strong consensus across all analysis models that Heerenveen are overpriced at the current odds. While they are the stronger team based on ELO ratings, the models suggest the probability of a home win is much lower than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45

Heerenveen's market-implied win probability (60.6%) exceeds all analysis model estimates (averaging 51.3%), despite only modest short-term form and expected goals advantages. The significant discrepancy between statistical projections and market pricing indicates overvaluation of the home team.

odds available at 09:45

Heerenveen demonstrates superior form in both short and medium-term windows, with ELO ratings significantly higher than their opponents. The ELO fair odds are 1.91 compared to market price of 1.64, indicating the market may be slightly undervaluing the home side. Poisson expected goals favour Heerenveen at 1.73 versus 1.08.

odds available at 09:45